Coming 2021, Tamilnadu will have its state assembly elections and given the current circumstances, political parties are gearing up for their campaigns for the same. It is about time we the taxpaying citizens get a good view of what the worst case scenario will be before we are forced to take a hard stand on the same ending up polarized in the process.
Remember, prevention can only be done when we envision the possible bad and plan accordingly.
In this discussion, I wish to present the top predictions in the developments that will lead us to the voting day in 2021. Between now and the voting day in 2021, there are going to be events of strong significance that we as a society will not be able to ignore. It doesn't matter what side we take at that point, what will remain irreversible is that we will stand strongly divided. That is going to cost all of us Tamils very dearly in the long term.
It is about time we start thinking the following:
1. What type of events will catch our attention, forcing us to take a side?
2. What will be the state of electoral politics towards the voting day in 2021?
3. How will the parties plan and execute their respective political campaigns?
Here's what I have as top answers when I ask myself these questions:
At least 2 communal riots about 3 months before election followed by freebie announcements within the last 60-days to election day will set the overall tone for the elections.
The price-per-vote will remain in the INR 10-20K range across the state. If the current government does what it is already doing, then the overall poverty in the state will grow and eventually influence the price-per-vote drop to INR 7-12K. More desperate voters means their asking rate comes down.
The state will have each political group fielding its caste oriented campaigns trying to unite their respective caste groups but the overall voting trend will follow a strong Dalit vs. Non-Dalit tone. Each caste group will have their caste-loving audience support them on account of their COLLECTIVE HATRED FOR DALITS! As it turns out Dalits only make up 20.1% of the population and so everyone will be focusing on securing as much as possible of the remaining 80%. With the right wing caste strategy playing out, voters need a common enemy to unite and this time, it is going to be a strong Dalit vs Non-Dalit divide which will reflect in the election.
The caste-campaign will begin with a THEY ARE ALSO BAD tone and end up with a DALITS MUST BE TAUGHT A LESSON tone!!! In between this, to neutralize the criticism from those who believe in equality, these caste based campaigns will introduce a ‘I SUPPORT MY CASTE DOESN’T MEAN I HATE OTHERS’ white noise which will distract the voters and buy some more time for more stronger caste-oriented campaigning. In the end, all they will aim for is to make a hater out of everyone and group each hater under their relevant caste identity!
There will be a few surprises here and there as educated rational voters will continue to disregard caste and vote the best candidate (best among those who contest) but then they will remain a minority. They might probably have concerns such as this:
They might also decide their political orientation based on this:
However, will it be the case will remain a wait and watch!!!
One might be easily driven to think that the citizens can always approach the courts for justice when such untoward violent incidents happen but that is not going to help.
Here is a retired high court judge explaining how the judiciary is not in a position to help achieve all forms of justice and reforms:
Remember, planning for worst case scenario is not an option for Tamils. The election results doesn't really matter. What matters is the polarized divide we citizens will stand across as it will directly impact our daily lives in ways we would never imagine!!! We would, at that point, be at a point of no return. Hypothetically, the growing trend of unfair governance disregarding the equal treatment of Tamils will create a large number of butterfly flutters, each one manifesting itself into a distinct hurricane of astronomical force. The ensuing chaos will be the trend of truck drivers losing their licenses for reckless driving and specific apartment complexes becoming increasingly vulnerable to short circuit fires. The Tamil common man will be forced to seriously consider tolerating the life, liberty and pursuit of happiness of himself and more importantly that of those responsible for the unfair governance which might drive him to that point.
One might feel driven towards being highly observant and hyper-sensitive but the fact is that we Tamils need to be outright paranoid! One lazy wink or a quick stare away and we will remain lost in that glitch forever. Again, being paranoid, is not a choice anymore. It really matters we plan for the worst and carefully plan the mental heuristics and the 'ways out' of the fast approaching delirium delivered by caste based politics conceived by the right wing. It is the same game except this time, as we approach the 2021 state elections, the game will have very different rules!
Our worst enemy, will be no other than ourselves for at that point, we will remain the victim of the right wing conspiracy that takes pride in splitting the society into pieces irrespective of whatever the collateral may be. Completely avoiding getting polarized is not going to be possible for all. The best way out is to have contingencies in place and enough redundant means of accessing the same. Inside our brains, when we are in the caste game run by the right wing, we will have to find our way out without knowing where we are, where we are headed and how we are getting there. All escape routes will remain in a 'drop-like-a-stone' mode.
One quick contingency that I think will help all of us is this:
ALL HUMANS ARE EQUAL!!!
Store it in multiple sections of your brain, lock them up and lose the keys. Remember the algorithm to get to the nearest keys. When the game begins, each one of us will be on our own. Again, the election doesn't really matter but what matters is the consequence of the political campaigns.
What do you think the road to 2021 Tamilnadu state elections will have in store that we need to worry about?
See you at the other end of the chaos in 2021!
Regards,
