QZ8501: UNANSWERED QUESTIONS FOR THE CRASH INVESTIGATION

Hello World,

Recent news reports quote a transport minister who claims #QZ8501 'climbed too fast.' The Preliminary Crash Report is yet to be released. Also, the report will not be publicly released.

The analysis of the FDR/CVR data is going on and the Preliminary Report is yet to be released but a transport minister is announcing that as per radar data, the aircraft climbed too fast or faster than normal. With the report out of public view, there is now way the general public can ever learn about the true cause of the incident. All we have to rely on will be the ‘Official Announcements’ based on ‘Reports Based on Evidences.’ 

 I think, we are being guided away from some critical information and I wish to discuss these unmentioned or rather less-covered areas of the QZ8501 story. 

Here are some pictures that I caught my attention:

 

Source:

http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/commercial/Search-and-Rescue-Operations-Recover-QZ8501-Fuselage_83943.html#.VL9sWyyczLV

 Source:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/4ad8a46e69c441c1ba9cee37f40f234f/singapore-fuselage-crashed-airasia-plane-located

Look at the underwater images closely and we will notice that the right wing is very close to the ground and the left wing is not so visible. No information on the state of engine-debris so far (mysteriously). Nobody has asked any question in this regard so far (as far as I know).

We got carried away with the recovery of the tail-section debris and the discovery of the fuselage. I think we need to wait until some engine debris is recovered. If the right wing is intact with the fuselage, the engine below it has to be crushed under it or broken and thrown somewhere nearby. Any major disintegration of the engine during the fall might have seriously damaged the right wing and we wouldn’t have noticed it (like the left wing that is missing).

Why hasn’t anyone asked anything about the debris status of other sections of the aircraft, especially the engines? 

Source: https://twitter.com/RadiantPhysics [@RadiantPhysics]

If the image above indicates the actual trajectory of #QZ8501 during its final moments of its crash, then we need to investigate the reason behind the 'leftward-spiraling' trajectory, especially from 23:17:43 to 23:19:46. In a time period of about 2 minutes, the aircraft has descended quick while following a left-ward spiraling trajectory. When two engines are pulling with the same thrust, the aircraft is supposed to fly straight. if the aircraft has spiraled down quick, turning left all the way down, then either the left engine was not operating the same way as the right engine or the aircraft got locked into a 'left-bank' state. Aircraft tend to descend during turns/banking maneuver. If the aircraft turned but did not recover from the descent profile during turn/bank, either the control system failed or the left engine blew out. This may not be 'the cause' but this is definitely a possibility which, for some reason hasn't been discussed yet or ruled out.

Is this possibility [Engine Blowout/Control System Failure] being considered in the 'List of Potential Causes' for the accident? If it has been ruled out, what part of the CVR/FDR data substantiate the ruling out of this possibility?

 Source:http://img.astroawani.com/2015-01/41420457850_950x600.jpg

The 3-seat debris image also seems to have minor burn marks on the seats. The plastic bags of the oxygen masks seem melted. These debris have been subject to harsh environments and spent considerable time under water and therefore these marks cannot be used to conclude on fire. However, when most of the metal-rod elements of the seat debris are clean, some portions of it are ‘blackened.’ 

Also the investigation or the recovery team has not mentioned anything about the state of the bodies that have been recovered so far. The bodies in almost all media images are enclosed in body-bags and therefore we cannot make any comments on that. In one way, that at least protects the privacy of the deceased. None of the concerned authorities have so far commented anything on the state of the bodies or the result of the post-mortem tests that may have been conducted on them. The cause of death as identified from post-mortem reports can guide us better in terms of ascertaining the accident event-chain that resulted in the crashing of the aircraft in the ocean.

Why hasn’t anyone asked about the state of the bodies that have been recovered or the post-mortem results? (If the bodies have burn marks, then there must have been a fire incident onboard during the sequence of events that led to the crash)

 

 

                                                                                  Source:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30632735

The underwater image above shows ‘streaks’ on the aircraft skin. The paint has been ‘scratched’ off the skin. To me, this doesn’t look like a result of salt-water erosion. I think, this is a result of debris striking the aircraft, post-disintegration, most probably in air, during the aircraft’s fall into the ocean. 

After the tail section was recovered, the rescue/recovery team was still looking for the fuselage, which indicates that the tail and the fuselage were far apart from each other on the ocean floor. This is another indication for the possibility of a mid-air disintegration of the aircraft. However, there is always a chance of strong water currents moving debris around.

Summing up, the Chief Investigator has informed that the crash was not due to ‘icing’ and the transport minister has said the aircraft climbed ‘faster than usual.’ For some reason there is no mention of the state of the victims’ bodies recovered, no discussion about the victims’ ‘cause-of-death’ and no mention of engine debris or the left wing that is missing in the under-water image. The preliminary crash report will also not be publicly released. 

I think they are setting up the situation for 'Error-by-Omission' and/or 'Erroneous Maneuver' where they can comfortably conclude that the pilot gave 'Excessive Elevator & Throttle Inputs' which led to 'stalling' that played 'significant' role in endangering the aircraft eventually paving way for a catastrophic event. In other words they might just end up saying that the pilot did something wrong and failed do something right when things went from bad to worse and eventually beyond control. Frankly, any other reason will render the operator or manufacturer at fault.

All I have to ask is: 

Why are the state of bodies recovered not being discussed along with post-mortem results? 

(They don't have to show the bodies but they can definitely declare their states during their discovery)

Why is no one concerned about learning the cause of death of the victims? 

(The crash is a big event but death can happen due to various reasons such as asphyxiation or burning or non-penetrating trauma or drowning)

What 'Chain of Events' forced the pilots to do whatever they did?
(Those are the key elements of the root-cause rather than pilot-action which was merely a response to an emergency situation)

If the aircraft was 'completely fine' until the crash, why is the plane found in bits, scattered around the ocean floor?

Who is being protected here and why?

Sincerely hoping, these and many other details of the investigation will eventually get out so the general public and aviation industry can get  a realistic view of the unfortunate incident and possibly learn from it to improve safety.

If asking these questions make me look like an idiot, then I don't have any problem in accepting that I am an idiot who wants to learn the real reason behind the death of  innocents. 

I am Crazy Motts after all. The human inside me just can't stand by and watch people die and investigations getting polished off to neutral or blame-the-dead conclusions.

Some References:

http://www.straitstimes.com/st/print/3351627

http://www.wcarn.com/news/40/40933.html

Regards,

 

Commercial Aircraft Air Asia QZ8501 Goes Missing: Evolving Flight Risks Call for Upgraded Safety Measures

Hello World,

Another commercial aircraft vanishes, this time it is Air Asia QZ8501, an Airbus 320. A320 is one of the widely used commercial aircraft across the globe. There are airlines whose entire fleet is comprised of A320's.

The news release, so far indicates that the pilot requested a path change, a possible change in altitude and direction. This indicates that the pilot foresaw some weather challenges possibly due to moderate or severe turbulence related to thunderstorm events crossing the designated flight paths. The usual 'altitude-clearance' for escaping potential thunderstorm cloud is 2000 feet but this can vary depending on how bad the weather is (as per the pilot based on his observation of the radar & other instruments). The fact that the pilot requested altitude change from (about) 32000 to 38000 feet indicates he wanted to clear the bad weather envelope by a safe margin.

I think, this aircraft faced anomalies including or related to outage of electrical system resulting in the malfunctioning of guidance, navigation and control system. It can be faulty system failing during flight or system failing due to natural events such as lightning strikes (or any other thunderstorm related activity). Either ways, if the pilots had access to information pertaining to where the aircraft is, where it is headed and how it is heading there, they could have achieved an emergency landing. As usual, there is always the possibility of instantaneous disintegration of the aircraft. Again, nothing can be concluded until the investigation is completed.

From the atmospheric sciences view, we can get hit by a lightning even when we are significantly far from the thunderstorm cloud. As long as there is sufficient temperature difference that can cause charge separation and we (aircraft) happen to present ourselves as a means of discharge, we have every chance of inducing the discharge. Now the platform is built to take such weather anomalies. However, we can never say for sure the 'limit' of such natural phenomena. One small overshoot can set off a sequence of smaller anomalies that can spiral into something major and eventually result in a catastrophic event. It all depends on that first anomaly and how long it took to spiral into a catastrophic event.


Global Aircraft Disappearances & Lightning Activity

Two incidents of 'aircraft disappearance' within 1 year in the same airspace indicates more than random coincidence. I don't see any reason to question technology anymore. may be we need to open our minds to the idea that the weather-based flight operation risks are evolving and existing technologies are not versatile/robust enough to meet the new breed of 'worst-case-scenarios.'

The cause of the QZ8051 accident will only be known after the findings of the accident investigation are released.

However, there is a distant correlation, which, in the larger scheme of things, seem to get my attention and I think we need to look into that and go full-force towards preventive measures.

Based on my recent research on global lightning events, I believe the south-east asia (asia pacific in general) is part of the high-risk-regions for intense lightning activity. Please find below the time lapse video of 30 days' lightning events (from June, 2014) plotted on a world map (30 days' data including about 60000 lightning events in each plot):

Here's one plot from the video as reference for our understanding of the region's vulnerability to lightning events:

The plot above has about 60000 events plotted on the world map. If you look at the Asia Pacific region, it is clear that the south east asia is a place for active lightning events. Now this plot includes only those lightning events that are 'significantly large in terms of magnitude' as detected by the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) as managed and operated by the University of Washington. The basic criteria for a lightning event to be included in the data is when the event is detected by at least 5 stations from the global spread of over 50 such stations, each of them located about thousands of kilometres from each other. 

For a detailed look into global lightning phenomenon, feel free to look up:

Global Lightning: Electro-Magnetic Adversaries of Aviation Industry

www.AerospacePal.com

Here's something I just came across on the internet:

Source: http://www.fastcodesign.com/3027794/infographic-of-the-day/infographic-84-planes-thatve-vanished-off-the-face-of-the-earth

Key Lies in Comparison

If we look at the infographic given above closely and compare it to the global lightning plot above (right after the youtube video), it is almost as if the plots resemble each other in terms of concentration of occurrences, geographically. Those locations that have the greatest number of red dots (lightning activity) are the regions where most aircraft vanishes have happened.

 It is true that the image has just one day's plot in comparison. But the video has a month's data in time lapse which has the similar trend. That analysis has data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network, collected by over 50 stations spread across the globe. The trend that we see in one image or the month's data is pretty much the same. Again, my point is not to take any 'causation' from the correlation. I am of the view, in surprise, that most of the 'aircraft disappearances' have happened in 'high-lightning' zones. To me that means that those aircraft that went missing, 'might' have encountered unfavorable weather conditions as the starting point of the 'crisis situation' that eventually led to their disappearance.

Well, this resemblance cannot be used for any conclusions at this point of time but this definitely points us towards a new angle of investigation. May be the flight conditions are evolving, and the current systems are struggling to cope with it. The technology is not bad but is getting outdated as we speak. The flight conditions are getting worse and our protective measures should get equally robust. They have been robust for decades but is this decade the same as the one before? Will the next decade be the same as this decade? The answer is a plain no. Then why would we expect the technology to be time-independent in terms of effectiveness?

What Could Be Done

Going All-Out on Preventive Measures.

I think it is time the ICAO and regional regulators (from Asia Pacific region) get together and draft a set of mandatory requirements that includes :

1. SATCOM Implementation (Cockpit & Cabin)

2. Upgrade of Lightning Protection Solutions

It doesn't stop with drafting new rules. In fact, it just begins with that. The implementation is the key here. Regulators in this region already have a tough time monitoring the operators. Every little compromise happening with procedures related to air-safety, both at the regulator and operator level renders the aircraft unsafe. Just because the probability of occurrence is very low, doesn't mean nothing bad will happen. Again, the potential impact is of importance and not the probability of occurrence.

For 'satcom implementation' I am not referring to the airlines using them for their communications. Satcom is considered expensive (subscription charges) and the airlines most often use them only when their aircraft is out-of-range from their line-of-sight communications. What I wish to suggest is a collaborative-satcom-implementation where along with the airlines, the regulators/ATC have visibility of the aircraft and more importantly, there is a real-time systems data streaming so any health deterioration can be detected and possibly predicted by an effective data-analysis regime. The objective of the collaborative effort should, in my view, focus on cost-sharing. The regulators can waive the % of annual cost for satcom implementation (enforced this way) in the duties/taxes that airlines pay. This will help the airlines achieve compliance without too much cost burden. Again, there are so many ways this could be achieved. All we need is a comprehensive satcom implementation for enhanced situational awareness, irrespective of how rarely these unfavorable situations occur.

I believe, both these upgrades will take the existing commercial aircraft safety one level above, into what may be a 'situationally aware' state of air-safety where the airlines, air-traffic controllers (civil/military) and satellite operators have real-time 'eyes-on-the-plane.' Also the aircraft will have a broader range of lightning protection in them.

I wish the plane is safe somewhere but my hopes are a mere reflection of what is human desperation for survival. If this aircraft is lost at sea, then we should stop talking about how advanced the platforms are and how great the procedures are.

The current capabilities and any capability for that matter will be in accordance with the concerned regulatory framework. However, we need to study evolving weather patterns and update our region wise 'worst-case-scenarios.' In practical terms, regulatory compliance is all about pre-written standards and the equipment checking out on the standards during their testing. I have great respect for the scientific community that develops the methods and regulator community that enforces the standards, but in rather blunt layman terms, a group of humans signing off on any technology will not guarantee safety during flight. It only asserts our confidence on the equipment for uptake. Our confidence has so far been proven right but this past year the aviation accidents have attempted to remind us that, standards and regulations have to get more customized, based on region-specific conditions. This to me means that, we need an evolutionary process for constantly measuring the weather patterns and have an ongoing flight-risk assessment feed into the regional framework of regulations. Now it will cost resources but we need to invest in that to be able to avoid aircraft disappearances. Again, by agreeing to constantly revisit flight risk-assessment, we will not doubt or undermine any technology or any entity's capacity to provide safe equipment/service. We have paid over 350 human lives this past year in 'aircraft disappearances' alone. We cannot go on anymore with the 'On what basis/capacity are you questioning our capability?' attitude. Even from a strict business sense, airlines need passengers to trust their 'air-safety' before they enjoy the 'enhanced passenger experience' through wi-fi and IFE. We will be questioned and we will be blamed but that is a price we must pay to enhance safety in commercial aviation. Just my thought.

Let's face it, whether we agree or not, weather-pattern is always variable and things can always go bad. In this case, it went bad twice within a year, in the same airspace. It is a waste of time identifying who went wrong and who failed to monitor them. We must focus on eliminating all potential possibilities of such an occurrence in future. The times are desperate and we need tough decisions and follow-up with implementation. Lives are more important than Return-On-Investment and budget constraints. This is the time for collaborative effort. We have already paid with human lives in hundreds. The objective is to prevent planes from vanishing. I can't believe, I just wrote that but sadly, it makes all the sense.

Continuing to hope for increasing air-safety in commercial aviation.

On a very different note [a shameless plug], if you are interested in unique tamil short films, feel free to visit https://www.summamovies.com/. I couldn't tolerate the mass masala entertainers anymore and decided I will do my best to produce content with substance. I have a long a way to go as a producer and a start-up founder, but I am glad our journey has begun. I look forward to your support. Each film on our site costs INR 15. Thanks!!!

Regards,

Unexplored Online Shopping Options for the Indian Consumers: Tip for getting better deals on eBay.com

Hello World,

This is the holiday season and most of us have or are buying gifts for self, family and friends. In this post, I want to familiarise you with some additional online shopping channels that can offer you products cheaper than those you might believe as the cheapest. Nothing ground-breaking here but I did identify an undiscovered link of ecommerce supply chain that has the capacity to deliver us consumers in India, the added benefit of ‘in-store’ discounts via conventional online shopping channels.

Long story short, I find that for so many products, eBay.com can prove to be cheaper than from any other online retailer website that we are used to in India. Now a lot of things have to fall in place and I will walk you through it. My objective here is to empower the consumers, that is you and me, with a small piece of information that might help us save some money while buying products online. There is no cheating or malpractice involved in this whatsoever, so let’s get to it.

This past 6 weeks I believe is best pat of the year when all the companies release new products and retailers slash prices to clear their inventory. This trend is catching up everywhere and here in India, we consumers took it to a whole new level as online retailers miserably underestimated the demand for online shopping. One retailer wanted to make $100 million dollars in revenue in 24 hours with a particular ‘sale’ but reached that target in 10 hours and faced overbooking and web-traffic issues. Consumers lashed out at the retailer for being phony but the reality of the fact is that the retailer did not expect so many of us would turn up to buy products online here in India.

I have bought more than one product from eBay.com (in the past few years) which cost me a lot less than what I might have paid while buying on the indian online retailer websites including eBay.in. Just like any other person, I would go to the major online retailer websites, one by one and look for my favorite product and then compare prices/reviews. I would buy the product which seems to be most appreciated and from the seller who has the least customer complaints. 

One day, I typed in eBay.com in the address bar and it took me to ebay.in. I got curious about it and googled eBay.com and realised the retailer is hosting different sites for different markets. My curiosity took me into the ebay.com website and I started browsing it for the products I was looking in the Indian online retailer websites. Something dawned on me. 

Here is an example:

Given below are screenshots of different websites, for one particular product, which in this case is a GoPro Hero 3 camera (I bought one recently from eBay.com and paid much less than what I would have paid if I had bought from the domestic ecommerce websites):

Indian Online Retailer 1:

Indian Online Retailer 2:

Look at the Hero 3 product image above. Hero 3 is the one as shown in the previous picture. For some reason the very product image is displayed wrong. May be a small glitch in displaying product information (or is it something else? I am just asking.)

Ebay.com Product Option(international reseller/small business):

The product price +shipping totals $ 268.70 which as of 28th Dec, 2014 equals about INR 17140.37. 

INR 17140 is way less than the other entries as captured from Indian online retailers. Even if you consider the 28% duty, the total will be around INR 21000 and the $ 268.70 is not the cheapest deal for Hero 3 on ebay.com. I just took the first economical deal I could find. If you search a little bit more, you might get an even better deal on it. 

We can try this out everytime we look to buy something online. I think it would be worth the time looking up international resellers on sites such as eBay.com at least for products such as consumer electronics. Spread the word and see if your friends find similar deals. We need to remember that 'sharing information' is the real power of consumers. 

How does this work? Well here’s how I understand this. Consumers in established markets have access to frequent in-store and online discount/clearance sales where the prices are slashed by big margins. The Black Friday sale is the most prominent one but stores and online retailers tend to host such events from time to time whenever they find a particular set of inventory holding up space and investment. Now these products when they reach the hands of those who sell on eBay, the rest of the consumer world gets the product at a price different from the rest of the big businesses. Remember, we are talking about individuals who buy and sell stuff from their homes. At least, most of whom I bought from are that type of eBay sellers. There are some who have been doing this for a long time I suppose since I see them classified as Top Rated Seller.

The interesting thing here to me is that, we consumers now have in-direct access to in-store and regional discount sales through these entrepreneurial individual sellers (or resellers). Credits to their thinking, we consumers have one additional choice that can add value.

I think, we consumers here in the Indian market, can leverage the low price options from international resellers (mostly small businesses) to get the most out of our online spending. I have bought diverse categories of products this way and I believe, you can too. 

However, there is a risk of choosing the wrong reseller. I will remind you to exercise your discretion and analyse the purchase decision and product/reseller choice carefully before you decide. What I am describing here is a mere indication and no endorsement of any business. This is a tip from one consumer to another, nothing less, nothing more.

Indian ecommerce market is rapidly growing and the trend of impulse shopping has caught up with the consumers here. 

Finally, the ecommerce  domain has established itself as a major consumer-influencing force and the brick-and-mortar businesses are switching to or adding up their click-and-mortar business models. There is however a rising concern of bad service and online frauds as consumers are just getting aware of the internet traps. In other news, the tele-marketing shows are seriously targeting the older demographics and the companies that are going full flow with late night tele-marketing shows are those who were notorious for online frauds in the ecommerce domains. The consumers got so annoyed that they reviewed those retailers out of mainstream internet trade. Now they are after the gullible older demographics who are not sure about online purchases and find ‘comfort’ products very luring. 

Overall, the ecommerce industry is growing by the billion but yet to offer the product diversity as in established markets. Consumers are learning new pre-purchase and post-purchase quality perceptions and the retailers have to listen to them right now. The brick-and-mortar businesses should now get their own internet-based business model running or see their business migrate away to other online retailers. Good times ahead for those businesses who put their customers first.


On a very different note [a shameless plug], if you are interested in unique tamil short films, feel free to visit https://www.summamovies.com/. I couldn't tolerate the mass masala entertainers anymore and decided I will do my best to produce content with substance. I have a long a way to go as a producer and a start-up founder, but I am glad our journey has begun. I look forward to your support. Each film on our site costs INR 15. Thanks!!!

Regards,

Image Source:

http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/woman-gets-one-years-clothing-supply-from-zalora-after-husbands-ban-plea-go

Product display pics (retailers 1 & 2): Those are screenshots from the respective retailer websites. I think it is better we let their identity be anonymous or let's say open to interpretation. Maybe they get their brains that way.