Hello World,
The world is battling the
Covid-19 pandemic and it is now struggling to keep the coronavirus from
spreading while also maintaining the economy intact. While the public health
crisis is no way near the end, the governments seems to heavily focused on the
economic impact, almost as if, the success of businesses and economic recovery
can cause the mutation and subsequently the extinction of the virus.
While there is no doubt that
doctors and virologists do not have the attention of the administrators in most
countries including our own, there seems to be a wave of ignorance rising among
the public which is very close to concluding the Covid-19 crisis as fake news.
Amidst the ongoing chaos, I,
as a common man have been following the Covid-19 crisis since the day the lockdown
was announced. I have been noticing some weird trends and the political leaders
blaming everyone but themselves indicated to me that there is something that
remains lost in the chaos. I started speaking with virologists and doctors who
have been treating Covid-19 patients and those who have even advised their
governments on the same. What they told me about their understanding of the
virus and how the infection of the same impacts a human being did keep me awake
for a few nights which finally prompted me to write this.
I started digging around to
get a fact-based awareness and while I was able to corroborate most of what I
heard from experts I spoke with, I couldn’t completely avoid what I noticed in
the limited cross-reading that I did while navigating through the recently
published Covid research papers.
This post, as such, is a
compilation of the smaller pieces of information that caught my attention and
my collective view of them. I see a picture emerging which I am presenting here.
Now, I am neither a doctor nor a Covid-19 specialist in any sense. All I am is
a Tamil speaking common man hardly eligible to be called an insignificant
blogger. On that basis, I request you to not believe everything you read here
without verifying it yourself. While I have distinct opinions documented here,
I have, as in my recent posts, presented the specific source information that I
consider as a reason for such opinions. This means you can see what I saw and
form your opinion. I would only be interested in knowing how different your
view is from mine. We might as well begin our journey.
Source: Presumed Asymptomatic
Carrier Transmission of COVID-19
“Patient
1 (presumed asymptomatic carrier), a 20-year-old woman, lives in Wuhan and
traveled to Anyang on January 10, 2020. She initially met with patients 2 and 3
on January 10. On January 13, she accompanied 5 relatives (patients 2 through
6) to visit another hospitalized relative in Anyang District Hospital (Figure).”
Clearly the
transmission seems to be more direct as the asymptomatic carriers and others
had visited hospitals to meet Covid-19 patients. This also seems to have happen
ed at a time when the concept of asymptomatic carriers being able to transmit
was established and informed in the public domain.
“Patients 2
through 6 developed COVID-19. Four were women, and ages ranged from 42 to 57
years. None of the patients had visited Wuhan or been in contact with any other
people who had traveled to Wuhan (except patient 1).”
This clearly
indicates secondary transmission as direct contact with Covid-19 patients had
not been established. While the carrier had remained asymptomatic, those who
received the infection had developed the symptoms. This does raise the question
as to what happens with the asymptomatic patients.
Source: A
familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus
indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster
“They and one
asymptomatic child (aged 10 years) had radiological ground-glass lung
opacities.”
This indicates
even asymptomatic patients develop symptoms except the externally visible
symptoms remain absent while the internal symptoms remain active! I am not a doctor
nor a specialist who understands medical terms correctly. However, I do realize
that this 'ground glass opacity' is a medical term that needs to be clarified before concluding anything about it.
Source: Ground-glass
opacification
“Ground-glass opacification/opacity (GGO) is a descriptive term referring to an area of
increased attenuation in the lung on computed tomography (CT) with preserved bronchial and
vascular markings. It is a non-specific sign with a wide etiology including
infection, chronic interstitial disease and acute alveolar disease.”
This indicates that the ‘radiological
lung opacities’ are actual consequences of an infection/condition which is anything
but normal or safe. Asymptomatic patients are those who do not show external
symptoms of fever, cough etc. However there has been an instance of an asymptomatic
patient having lung conditions indicating the abnormal state of the asymptomatic
patient’s health.
How many asymptomatic patients
are we letting go every day and how many of them are out there with lung issues
(the ground glass opacity)? What if their internal symptoms worsen and they
enter a state beyond the point of recovery (severe lung infection reducing
their ability to take in enough oxygen)?
Source: Detection of 2019
novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR
“Detection range for
SARS-related coronaviruses from bats
At present, the potential
exposure to a common environmental source in early reported cases implicates the
possibility of independent zoonotic infections with increased sequence
variability [5]. To show that the assays can detect other bat-associated
SARS-related viruses, we used the E gene assay to test six bat-derived faecal
samples available from Drexler et al. [13] und Muth et al. [14]. These
virus-positive samples stemmed from European rhinolophid bats. Detection of
these phylogenetic outliers within the SARS-related CoV clade suggests that all
Asian viruses are likely to be detected. This would, theoretically, ensure
broad sensitivity even in case of multiple independent acquisitions of variant
viruses from an animal reservoir.”
Based on news and media outlet
publications, the Covid-19 pandemic began from Wuhan, China. However, this
finding above indicates that European Rhinolophid bats’ faecal samples tested
positive for viruses like that of Covid-19. It also considers ‘independent
zoonotic infections’ as a common environmental source for this pandemic. Now,
this drives me to think about the presence/distribution of Rhinolophid bats
because if Rhinolophid bats are the source of Covid-19, then this risk is
supposed to be in all the places they are present, geographically. This
assumption does need us to factor in the possibility of this specific strain of
covid-19 virus (otherwise termed as one of the SARS-Cov viruses) being present
in the Rhinolophid bats across regions. For now, I am curious as to where I can
find these Rhinolophid bats.
Source: Genomic Characterization
of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Related Coronavirus in European Bats and
Classification of Coronaviruses Based on Partial RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase
Gene Sequences
The image above, while is an
unassuming depiction of the distribution of Rhinolophid bats, it is a deeply
disturbing piece of information to me. This is mainly because, now that I realize
Rhinolophid bats, amongst other bats carry a whole family of SARS-Cov viruses,
I am afraid as to how many such health crisis is, we already risking by exposing
ourselves to those bats. Now, mere presence does not indicate transmission and
or eventual health risks. However, it does become relevant when we factor in
the variable of human-induced impacts that result in such adverse exposure and
infection. Before we proceed to the human-induced impacts, I think we need to
get a better understanding of the distribution of Rhinolophid bats.
Source: Greater Horseshoe Bat
The image above explains that
these Rhinolophid bats or the horseshoe bats have a broader and rather global
presence. Now, given that these bats are being considered the primary zoonotic source,
I am curious to see how the global Covid-19 distribution is.
Source: COVID-19 situation
update worldwide, as of 31 May 2020
Now the image above adds to
the already disturbing perception I am struggling to get my head around. Wherever
the bats are expected to live are where the Covid-19 infections prominent. The
US still is an outlier in this regard. There are quite a few countries
including India where the Covid-19 numbers are rising rapidly. Now, however
random and distant it might seem, I think, it is worth looking into horseshoe
bats in the regions outside the prominent zones.
Source: New Distribution
Record of Blyth's Horseshoe Bat Rhinolophus lepidus Blyth, 1844 (Chiroptera :
Rhinolophidae) from Eastern Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India
“It is distributed in 20
states in India. It has been reported from Rajasthan (Prakash 1963;
Senacha 2003; Sinha 1979),
Madhya Pradesh (Brosset, 1962; Khajuria 1980; Wroughton 1913),
Southern Gujarat (Chakraborty
and Agrawal 2000). In Maharashtra state,
Helwak (Wroughton 1916);
Kanheri caves, Nashik Road (Brosset 1962); Pune (Talmale 2007);
Khandala, Lonavala, Lohagad
fort, Karnala, Ratnagiri, Panchgani, Mahabaleshwar (Brosset
1962); Khopoli (Tiwari et al. 1971); Mulshi, Junnar, Bhimashankar,
Mahabaleshwar (Korad 2005; Korad et al. 2010).”
“This species is widespread in
South Asia and Southeast Asia. In South Asia, it has been recorded up to an
elevation of 2,330 m above sea level and is known from Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, and India (Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Karnataka, Kerala, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Orissa (now Odisha),
Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal (Molur et
al. 2002). In Maharashtra state, Helwak
(Wroughton 1916); Kanheri caves,
Nashik Road (Brosset 1962); Pune
(Talmale 2007); Khandala, Lonavala, Lohagad fort, Karnala, Ratnagiri, Panchgani,
Mahabaleshwar (Brosset 1962; Korad et al.
2006); Khopoli (Tiwari et al.
1972); Mulshi, Junnar, Bhimashankar, Mahabaleshwar (Korad 2005; Korad et al.
2010).”
The above references to
locations indicate that these bats do have a broad presence across regions,
especially India. The Maharashtra locations catch my attention as when I try to
understand the connecting link between those places, they are forest areas and
some of them are in mountainous regions (Western Ghats specifically).
Now, while I feel like
traveling further in this, I do see a strong speed bump with respect to these
India locations. Most of the Indian states mentioned above have high Covid-19
case count. Maharashtra seems to be the hotspot for these bats as well.
However, this to me does not indicate anything regarding Covid-19 transmission
from the bats here in India. We clearly got the infection via Airports and the
globally growing human to human transmission modality. What raises my concern
is the potential possibility of us (Indians) having been earmarked by the
existing presence of SARS-Cov virus family that might have made our
susceptibility to the human-to-human transmission which is taking its toll as
we speak.
The reason is simple. The
infection is expected to have originated from these horseshoe bats. The states
with these horseshoe bats are displaying high number of Covid-19 cases.
I think there is more to this
than what has been observed so far, given that all these observations are, in
all fairness, strange coincidences amounting to a certain correlation while
distinctly remaining away from potential causation.
Now, while the geographic distribution
of Horseshoe bats falls within the regions of high Covid-19 case numbers, we
need to establish clarity on the means of us contracting the infection from
them. The Wuhan investigation so far reveals that wild game (predatory
birds/reptiles) infected with Covid-19 virus was brough into the sea food
market from where the pandemic began its journey of human-to-human
transmission. The possibility of predatory species contracting a virus from
bats materializes when the bats get exposed to those predators. Now, if a
certain species has lived with such virus families for many years and have not
transferred their infection to a wider group of predators it means they haven’t
been exposed to the wider group of predators for so many years. Now, exposure
to new group of predators means either the predators have ventured into the
habitat of the bats or the bats have ventured out of their habitats owing to
which they became visible and eventually vulnerable to wider group of predators.
The question is: What could have happened that forced the horseshoe bats meet
their new nemesis who, incidentally happened to be on our menu?
Source: Pearson's Horseshoe
Bat
“Observed perch-hunting in
Thailand, from which bats made regular sallies to capture prey. Feeding perches
were used on consecutive nights, and were within or on the periphery of bamboo
patches (Robinson et al., 1995).”
So, the Horseshoe bats (at
least the kind mentioned above) have a habit of foraging in and around bamboo vegetation.
While these bats have been identified to live in caves, they clearly have been
dependent on bamboo patches for their food (insects mostly). The insects depend
on bamboo and the bats depend on the insects. If our menu has items that can
potentially contract a virus from these Horseshoe bats, it does indicate the
possibility of us disturbing the bats’ menu directly or indirectly.
Source: Pandas' Bamboo Food
May Be Lost to Climate Change
“The results suggest that if
the bamboo is restricted to its current distribution area, between 80 and 100
percent of it will disappear by the end of the 21st century, because it won't
be able to grow under the increased temperatures.”
Climate change, although widely
disregarded by those who intend to reduce the costs of implementation of energy
policies, is true in every sense and it has been impacting us directly and
indirectly. Here, in the above reference, we find the possibility of climate
change adversely impacting bamboo distribution. This is more indicative than
conclusive. However, it does provide a view into the potential destruction of
bamboo cover that might be already in progress. Clearly, with bamboo gone, gone
are the foraging opportunities for bats that rely on the insects that live in
and around bamboo patches.
Source: Recheck forest cover
data, UN body tells India; flags concern about definition
“The global body has
recommended that India delineate areas under orchards, and bamboo and palm
cultivation for an accurate assessment of carbon stocks of forests. The
exaggeration could fall at least in the range of 5-12% of the forest cover,
going by the submissions made by India to the UN body and estimates by
scientists at Indian Institute of Science (IISc).”
What we have done with the
forest cover and the data we reported about it did not fly well internationally.
The anomaly does however include ‘bamboo’ in the mix. This does not help
conclude much but gives a direction for the next step: What did we do with the
bamboo that might have impacted the bats directly or indirectly?
Source: Govt to unveil
‘bamboonomics’ for carbon credit & income
“The government plans to
present at the ongoing at the ongoing United Nations Convention to Combat
Desertification (COP14) its plan to set up 100 Van Dhan centres involving
tribals to make products from bamboo and build market for bamboo charcoal.
These centres will come up in northeastern states, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and
Madhya Pradesh.”
The demand for bamboo is high
and so this idea seems all wonderful from an economic perspective. However,
when it comes to selling agriculture produce, cultivating something and then
harvesting it is vastly different from clearing the existing vegetation of the
same. In most cases, especially in China which is a market leader in bamboo
market, a wide variety of bamboo are cultivated exclusively for this purpose
and harvested and exported. However, we are yet to increase our capacity in
that regard. While this program seems to be a good start, I am afraid, we have
chosen the dangerous short cut to temporary success – clearing the existing
bamboo forest cover in the name of economic development. This needs to be
validated from at least two ends to be sure such is the case.
Source: National Bamboo Mission
There we go. It is all out in
plain sight now. Wherever this bamboonomics projects have been implemented (or
planned to be, as reported), those are regions which already has an existing
bamboo forest cover. These are also some hot spots for ‘tribal population’
which, on a different note, indicates the presence of special class of ‘Our
Fellow Citizens’ who haven’t seen electricity and roads for many decades while
we are fantasizing trips to the moon and mars. So, we have a government initiative
focused on bamboo output covering regions which already has bamboo forest
cover. Not all this bamboo forest cover will be cultivated farm grown bamboo. A
major portion of this is going to be existing natural bamboo forest cover.
Cutting this down is going to disturb the local food chains. This to me
indicates the possibility of how we, here in India, forced the bats that depend
on insects in bamboo forests to venture out for food and eventually became
exposed to a wider group of predators. Since these bats already are host to a
wide variety of SARS-Cov viruses, we, especially those who live in these
regions have been biologically ear-marked for familiarity with these viruses.
We were lucky that we did not get the Covid-19 strain as the first population. Look
at the regions where Covid case counts are high in India and we will see that
these parts susceptible to bamboo deforestation have some of the hot spots. Now,
while we have established the possibility of how India made itself vulnerable,
it becomes imperative that we investigate other countries that followed similar
approach to removing bamboo forest cover.
Source: Golden Bamboo: Phyllostachys
aurea
This map above indicates the
presence of one species of bamboo which is extensively cultivated for domestic
and export markets. This region also has some of the native bamboos found in
the US. Native or introduced, large areas of bamboo vegetation get removed for commercial
purposes and this brings in the recurring cycle of bamboo vegetation growing
and declining. Again, nothing conclusive but indicative of how commercial pursuits
present ecological shocks in a recurring format. The suspicion still is that we
humans had ourselves earmarked for this Covid-19 strain by extensively
disturbing the bamboo forest cover, be it native or introduced.
Source: The global
distribution of bamboos: assessing correlates of introduction and invasion
The image above indicates that
in many countries, 100% of the bamboo they have are introduced species, clearly
indicating the presence of commercial pursuits chasing bamboo revenue causing
cyclical ecological shocks as a consequence. As it turns out, France, UK, Germany
and Canada have 100% of their bamboo, introduced. These are countries where
Covid-19 case counts are growing and in some are exceedingly high compared to
other countries globally. The US and Australia also have 80.8% and 96.2% of
bamboo as introduced species indicating their participation in such commercial
pursuits targeting bamboo. The western markets in general have always been key
importers of bamboo historically and the persistent demand in the market is
probably what drove them towards entering the same market as producers. The consequence:
installing a steady cycle of ecological shocks that might have rendered their
population indirectly exposed to SARS-Cov virus families. Again, there is
nothing that I have seen clearly concluding this, but such is my interpretation
as of now. This does raise the question: If bamboo forest is a key source of
insects for bats, has the entry and exit of bamboo in these countries really
impacted the entry and exit of bats?
Source: Greater horseshoe bats
living in Kent after absence of 115 years
“One of Britain’s and northern
Europe’s rarest and most elusive mammals has been discovered living in the east
of England for the first time in 115 years.
The return to Kent of the
greater horseshoe bat has delighted and astounded conservationists, who are now
examining whether climate change is shifting the species’ range. The bat is
normally found only in Wales and the west of England.”
Nothing conclusive at a global
level but indicative of the fact that bat population once found missing have been
rediscovered in the same regions and climate change is being considered a big
driver. Bats once lived migrated away and now are coming back to where they
used to live after a long gap. This does raise the question of bat migration
and the presence of corona-virus families at a global level.
Source: Migration and
dispersal patterns of bats and their influence on genetic structure
“In temperate climates, some
species such as Plecotus auritus and Myotis bechsteinii relocate within the
same area, and seasonal movements are rarely more than 100 km. Regional
migration, of up to a few hundred kilometres, is recorded in several species
(e.g. Myotis brandtii, Myotis daubentonii and Myotis myotis; Hutterer et al.
2005). Long-distance migration involving thousands of kilometres return flight
is thought to be rarer. European examples of long-distance migrants include
Nyctalus noctula and Pipistrellus nathusii (one-way maximum recorded distances
1600 km and 1905 km, respectively; Russ et al. 2001, Fleming & Eby 2003,
Hutterer et al. 2005). North American examples include tree-roosting species in
the genera Lasiurus and Lasionycteris, which undertake complex migrations of up
to 2000 km from temperate to subtropical habitats (Cryan 2003).”
So, bats do migrate and some
of them migrate over long distances spanning in thousands of kilometers. Some of
the bats, especially the horseshoe kind are also said to be with a lifespan of
20-30 years. For such small creatures to live that long and to be able to
travel long distances makes them unique and to me it is quite surprising that
they could generate that kind of energy for migration and live that longer. Now
that we know bats do migrate (not all of them) and cross breed, we can understand
how microbes can migrate along with them. This now asks the clarity on presence
of corona-virus families at a global level, so we can put these rather distant
pieces together to come to an understanding of how creatures move around and
mix and bring about the spread of microbes along with them.
Source: Global Epidemiology of
Bat Coronaviruses
The image above is quite self-explanatory
that bat-based coronaviruses have always been there, and they do have a global
presence. This means there is a possibility of all the humans living in the
respective regions have been exposed to, directly or indirectly the presence of
bat coronaviruses and could have been ear-marked as a consequence. This could
have made us humans more vulnerable to such viruses especially when ones such
as the Covid-19 got in touch with us. Based on other reading I can confidently
say bat coronaviruses are a big group and some of them have in the past caused
dangerous outbreaks as well. However, not all bat coronaviruses seem to be
causing dangerous disease outbreaks and this has been studied by many for
years. I did notice in some research which discussed ‘host-shifting’
demonstrated by some of these bat coronaviruses and the reason largely explored
was that when these microbes received a strong immune response from their host,
they moved on to other bat species depending on accessibility to them. Clearly,
bats migrating and cross breeding and sharing the same habitat (caves etc.)
have provided this opportunity for such ‘host-shifting.’
Having looked at these stand-alone
pieces of information, if I try to put these things together, this is what I
get:
Asymptomatic patients display the same type of lung infection (or internal symptoms that are visible on CT scan etc.) as that of symptomatic patients.
The primary zoonotic source of Covid-19 is expected to be Horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae family).
The primary zoonotic source of Covid-19 is expected to be Horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae family).
These bats have a
widespread/global presence.
Wherever the Horseshoe bats
have been identified, the Covid-19 case count is high.
Wherever the Horseshoe bats have
been known to live, extensive deforestation targeting bamboo forest cover has
happened (with varying levels of magnitude and intensity from region to
region).
The bats, especially the
Horseshoe bats depend on insects which in turn tend to breed more commonly in
and around bamboo patches.
The presence of bat coronaviruses
also has a global coverage with most regions having their presence.
We humans, especially those populations
that have been exposed to bat coronaviruses directly or indirectly are among the
groups which are facing Covid-19 outbreaks in large numbers. (The exceptions
being those groups who, by design have been exposed to the outbreak owing to
proximity to airports and presence in a congested urban landscape)
Summing up, I am forced to
believe, we humans have always been vulnerable to bat coronaviruses and that we,
with our commercial pursuits hurt the strong food sources of bats owing to
which they had to venture out to be exposed to a wider group of predators which
incidentally happened to be in our list of exotic meat source. We humans
disturbed the ecology that provided the insects to the bats. They then had to
be exposed to more predators. We met some of those infected predators and the
pandemic began from that point onwards. Now, this does not discount the fact
that this specific strain of coronavirus, the Covid-19, is something that we
did not know until this outbreak began.
Since, bat coronaviruses have
always been there and they have been known to mutate and evolve naturally, we humans
have, all along been exposed these risks and at times also faced shorter
outbreaks. We survived owing to timely efforts and the complex transmission
modality of those outbreaks. This outbreak of Covid-19 however, turned out to be
something we were not prepared for. We are paying for what is partially our
fault, except the price is huge and it is in terms of innocent human lives.
Again, please do not believe
me or accept my theory without personally looking into this. I could be 60%
correct. I could be 80% wrong. What I wish to present is the opinion that we
humans have been messing with nature in ways never seen before and therefore we
are facing consequences of the same kind.
What do you think?
If you think this perspective
is worth thinking about, please share this with those you think will benefit
from this. Given the current circumstances where ‘green zones’ and ‘low case
counts’ are being manufactured to support big businesses, the least we
commoners can do is share our honest opinions about the ongoing crisis to
enable each other’s awareness as it is in that awareness lies our collective
safety and welfare.
If you understand Tamil, then
this podcast below should be of interest to you as this covers views of virologists
and doctors regarding the Covid-19 crisis covering essential topics such as
transmission modalities of the coronavirus, impact of the virus on our
respiratory system and the vulnerability and susceptibility we collectively
share during this pandemic.
Best regards,
