Hello World,
Vijay's TVK arranged a roadshow in Karur where crowding resulted in stampede leading to death of 38 (possibly more) people and 50+ being injured. The way DMK and media are cracking down on TVK has caught the attention of people to the point that the critique against DMK is growing.
The primary reason cited is that TVK requested a specific area for the roadshow which was rejected by the administration and upon the administration's suggestion, TVK accepted to conduct the roadshow where it was permitted to. DMK and administration's effort to downplay this is causing the argument. On TVK's side the question is being raised that when TVK was not allowed to conduct its roadshow where it initially wanted to, how can it be held solely responsible for the deaths. From the administration's side, the counter is being presented that, the new location was allocated after considering the chances of large crowds and that was the reason why TVK's request (to do it in another location) was denied. the administration is also stating that TVK had informed that they were expecting 10,000 and the actual crowd which gathered measured about 25,000. The administration also stated that only 500 police personnel were deployed owing to the narrow location and the expected number of visitors.
The ongoing DMK vs. TVK media war can be better understood by looking into the background of TVK and Vijay's entry into politics.
Ever since DMK came to power in TN (in 2021), the film distribution (production as well; used to be) company held by the karuna family (led by Udhay back then) executed a legal yet unfair takeover of the film distribution business segment to the point where no film will get theaters/screens if they cross the political family in any way. Any producer will have to sell his/her movie to the film distribution company. While they will get what the sun company wishes as the price, they can neither negotiate or deny the sale. If they insist, their movie will forever remain on their hard disk. Initially, production houses and smaller distributors expressed happiness as the payments were on time and they did not face any unfair pricing cuts. However, over time, they realized that they have no control over the ecosystem and not even their own right to operate. Everything about film releases and the number of screens any movie will get gets decided by the sun company and the decisions are non-negotiable. The entire film industry, as a consequence is now under the fold of the family that controls DMK.
What does this have to do with Vijay?
Film making is one of the usual methods to convert black money to white and as in any other state, those who deal with lot of cash invariably have their toes in the local film industry. The sun company (both the production and distribution ones) also did the same and they invited the top heroes of the state to play the lead roles in their movies. Vijay ended up in their project. Usually films involving leading actors are written around the famous actor so their 'stardom' is used commercially. the other side of this trend is that the leading actors call the shots.
This is where Vijay's screenplay takes a sharp right turn. He is not allowed to decide on all aspects and he gets stuck with the project. His half-hearted involvement results in that movie flopping very badly (which is good for the black-to-white conversion). Adding fuel to the fire, Vijay was forced to do a television interview which he used to avoid over the years (a trend set by leading Tamil heroes post the Rajni/Kamal era to create the demand to monetize their visibility). Vijay spoke like a telegraph machine answering questions with few phrases and a straight face. This led to a fallout and Vijay decided to go his way but was met with another punch from the sun companies when his best efforts to sell his next movie(s) to other distributors failed. He had no other option but to sell his movie to them and as a response to his non-compliance, his movie release went through ambiguity where until the midnight before release date, there was no official confirmation that his movie will release. Unfortunately that particular instance involved a release-clash with his rival hero (whose movie was also released by the same sun companies). Losing to a authoritarian group is one thing but being forced to concede to a fellow rival hit Vijay's film business harder than expected.
Until then political commentary was merely used in a few scenes or song release functions to sell films (it is a trend still in practice in TN). After this back-to-back hits from Udhay-controlled film businesses, Vijay decided to step into politics to ensure he gives a formal pushback to Udhay's political dreams. The message through TVK is clear: You came into my industry, took control of how I do business, dominated me and disturbed my control. I will now come into politics and disturb your ambitions as best as I can.
This is the unspoken background of TVK. The lack of political ideology and efforts to use his fan following to canvas votes against DMK corroborates this ulterior motive of disturbing Udhay's political balance. Nobody from the party, has declared this which is understandable.
Why would any actor, holding the pole position, consciously decide to end his film career to enter politics?
Anyone with real political ambitions would've sued his/her means to influence the public politically throughout the career. Vijay's movies never did that. The past few years, some of his movies had a few mentions here and there which raked up political controversy, eventually, enabling the sales of the movies.
The film-to-politics transition is neither similar nor comparable to that of MGR etc., because back in the day, those stakeholders had a foot in politics while they were in movies and they sued their movies for their party propaganda as well. Vijay's transition has been abrupt and unorganized (lack of specificity in political ideology).
TVK hasn't established its political ideology in black and white. They have been clamoring about 'Secular Democracy' which is an unusual combination. It is not a democracy if it is not secular. Democracy does not differentiate citizens based on religion/caste. Secular Democracy is a redundancy which TVK is yet to clarify.
This lack of clarity in political ideology, when stacked up with the high density of non-Tamils in the top leadership of TVK reporting to Vijay, corroborates the internal objective which is to emulate a dravidian-party-style approach to establish the need for religious and caste identities and then calling for a integration of all religions and castes. The T in TVK refers to Tamilnadu (land of Tamils) but the ideology as described by Vijay includes both Tamil Nationalism and Dravidian politics. This is similar to serving chocolate cake and kimchi on the same plate with a steak knife - Individually different and unrelated ideologies blending in political dogma.
While TVK has not established its political ideology clearly, it has managed to establish the fact that Vijay's fan following can catch the attention of large number of people, young and old, which possibly disturb the vote banks of existing political parties. All the Vijay fans, especially those who have picked up political ideologies based on incomplete understanding, have changed their political stance declaring their support to TVK simply because it is led by their favorite film hero whom they have idolized for many years.
This comes down to 3-5% of the total TN vote bank with a potential to grow significantly in the coming years as many Vijay fans are yet to get their voter id's (they are not 18 yet).
The recent past state elections in TN have demonstrated that the individual DMK-ADMK vote bank difference (votes discarding those of their coalition parties) falls in the 1-3%. Since DMM and ADMK always run close to each other, a drop in 1-3% votes can and will establish who ends up winning the election and sets up the government.
This is where TVK has thrown its spanners. Where the spanners land and how big of a damage they cause is a wait and watch until the results of the 2026 TN state elections is announced.
TVK has been complaining that they are not getting the permission to conduct events at the location and timing of their choice and that they are having to compromise on those just to ensure their events happen as per their plan.
While other parties are also losing cadre to TVK, DMK is expected to be the worst hit. Vijay, has started directly attacking the DMK government.
The DMK ministers crying in front of the hospital indicates DMK wants to make a big scene out of this incident so there is a public outcry against TVK that can substantiate further crackdown on TVK's efforts.
The reason behind this suspicion is that, under the same DMK government, 50+ people died consuming illicit liquor in Kallakurichi about a year back. There was no DMK minister seen crying in front of the hospital.
Lives have been lost. Stampede is being cited as the reason behind the mishap.
However, news reporting focused on framing TVK as the root cause seems unfair. It was a roadshow and there was a crowd to see Vijay. What conditions given to TVK were not followed is not being cited or confirmed by any of the media. Unless that is established, blindly blaming TVK is only going to add more support to TVK. People are watching the news and the initial comments besides the sorrow are focused on how DMK is using this event to crack down on Vijay and TVK. This is unnecessary. If TVK has violated rules and regulations, clearly, they will be prosecuted for the same. The legal course of action is being pre-empted by the media coverage and theatrics by DMK in front of the hospital.
More than the sorrow of losing 38 lives, TN is, on the sidelines, also witnessing the growing support for TVK as a result of how DMK is using this incident to tarnish TVK.
TVK has a long way to go. Firstly, it has to establish a clear footing on its political ideology instead of beating around the bush. Secondly, it has to plan its campaigning better to avoid such unforeseen incidents.
What DMK is doing to TVK is only adding more support to TVK. However, will TVK end up winning against DMK is not a question in anyone's mind. TVK, can, at best, get 3-5% votes which can change the results of the TN state elections in 2026 to the point where the results could vary between an unset victory for a non-DMK party and a hung assembly forcing a coalition crisis.
The non-Tamils holding leadership positions in TVK are using Vijay's efforts to build another non-Tamil-focused political campaign. The utilization of Telugu/Kannada/Malayalee politicians from the past (in cutouts/claims) clearly indicates their ulterior 'We will take care of our own, no matter where we operate' attitude. Vijay seems to be blindly believing these non-Tamil leadership and trusting them with all party maneuvers including the roadshows, one which, has resulted in the death of 38 people. This added with TVK's deliberate distanced stand from clear-cut political ideology only establishes the internal stance focused on the welfare of non-Tamils while using the Tamil banner. The TVK votes, as a result will not remain with TVK forever.
The expectation, is that, once TVK has caused its initial damage to DMK in 2026, its votes will start to disintegrate and a good chunk of them will move towards Tamil Nationalism which is the rising political ideology currently holding 8% votes without paying cash for votes and establishing any coalition.
Vijay himself declared that Dravidian ideology and Tamil Nationalism are the two eyes of TVK in his maiden political speech. Clearly, TVK is not leaving any growing trend behind but picking up everything is leading it astray. Why is TVK picking up everything including opposing political ideologies is clear: The party is run by non-Tamils and while their leader has called out Tamil nationalism as one of TVK's eyes, they are not in favor of that idea, operationally. The non-Tamils have been conditioned to fear the lack of caste identities. Tamil Nationalism is all about abolition of castes. However, from a non-Tamil perspective, they do not have a footing if they do not use their caste. This is the impact of dravidian politics. Clearly, TVK's leaders below Vijay, do not want to go down the route of caste abolition as that amounts to, even theoretically, discarding the very identities that provides the economic support to those whom they consider 'their own.'
The irony is panning out. DMK's efforts to crackdown on TVK is generating support for TVK, while the very leaders controlling the operations of TVK are sabotaging its political ideology resulting in TVK going down the path of 'fading away after an initial glow'.
Those who move away from DMK and other parties to TVK will end up considering Tamil Nationalism as the final go-to ideology as that is the strong contender for the last-one-standing after the dravidian parties and new entrants like TVK fade away over the long term. Everyone who is not familiar with Tamil Nationalism have a comparable political ideology that they identify with and therefore they are not comfortable supporting Tamil nationalism. The non-Tamils, clearly have been conditioned with the idea of 'Caste is important, without caste we will not get any safety and opportunity' owing to which they will be afraid of any ideology that carries 'abolition of caste' as the fundamental basis.
When the dust settles down over the next few years, Tamil Nationalism will stand the final destination for those who will find themselves lost in the political landscape. The ongoing disruption led by TVK/Vijay is going to be a catalyst for the same. The short term events will create the perception that there is a TVK vs. Tamil Nationalism battle going on.
Naam Tamilar Katchi is the leading Tamil Nationalist party which is on the rise both on the vote bank front (8% in the last election) and the anti-DMK front.
The next few years will have DMK and ADMK beating each other leveraging disruptions from the likes of TVK but they will be erasing each other in the process while Naam Tamilar Katchi will continues to grow gradually.
Until then, TVK will hold the media limelight, not only because of Vijay but also because of how DMK cracks down on TVK. The media outlets ignoring Naam Tamilar Katchi will continue to enable its growth in the background.
TVK is hurting DMK and now DMK is after TVK with all its might. ADMK will use this to its advantage but it is on its own euthanasic trip through coalition with BJP. The big ones and the popular new ones are going to cancel each other. Such will be the catalyst for the growth of Tamil Nationalism.
Best regards,